Out of 100 AI researchers, how many say AI has at least a 10% chance of ending humanity?
▲
▼
Drag to get close · ▲▼ to fine-tune
51
Asked whether their own work might end humanity, 51% of the 1,580 AI researchers surveyed put the chance at 10% or higher. The median researcher now says 10%, double what they said in the last survey. They are a long way from agreeing: 12% say the risk is zero, while a third say 20% or more.
51% of AI researchers put at least a 10% chance on AI causing something as bad as human extinction.
Source: AI Impacts (Expert Survey on Progress in AI 2024; 1,580 researchers) · checked Sep 2026